To borrow an old Canadian adage, owning a phone other than Apple’s iPhone is like sharing a bed with an elephant. No matter what it does, or how much you want to ignore it, you are affected by its every movement.

Yesterday proved no different, as Apple revealed details about its iPhone OS 4.0. With the announcement comes many improvements, many of which (folders, dedicated e-mail app, etc) are already present on Android. However, Apple made one move that’s going to be causing a few waves: iAd. As a mobile advertising platform for iPhone apps, it gives developers a chance to split the revenues of advertising 60-40 with Apple. Thankfully, the developers get the 60.

Stupid naming scheme aside, iAd is part of Apple’s recent strategy to set precedents. Apple, as many people in tech will point out, dislikes working with Adobe product. This has resulted in a lack of Flash support for both iPhone and iPad. This lack of support became a large issue when the company decided to release their iPad tablet, as Adobe claims that Flash is installed on 98% of Internet enabled desktops, and 75% of all video online is viewed through their technology. How would they be able to tout the iPad as the “ultimate browsing experience” if it could not see half the videos and a large amount of ads that are on the Internet?

Apple then did what it does best, and set a precedent.

Enter HTML5. Slowly gaining steam within web circles lately, this update to a developing language makes videos and ads a plugin-less experience on the Internet. Gone would be the days of users having to install Flash and (shudder) Shockwave in order to view content. As long as a browser were up to date, users would be able to see what site designers wanted.

Android is not averse to HTML5, as any device with 2.0 or better has support for the format. Hell, Ian Hickson, the HTML5 Editor (yes, that’s a formal title) is a Google employee. This should mean that we, as Android users, should have nothing to worry about… right?

Not necessarily.

Along with the iPhone 4.0 came its software development kit (SDK), which included the following lines:

3.3.1 — Applications may only use Documented APIs in the manner prescribed by Apple and must not use or call any private APIs. Applications must be originally written in Objective-C, C, C++, or JavaScript as executed by the iPhone OS WebKit engine, and only code written in C, C++, and Objective-C may compile and directly link against the Documented APIs (e.g., Applications that link to Documented APIs through an intermediary translation or compatibility layer or tool are prohibited).

This segment of the agreement effectively locks out the use of Adobe’s Flash-to-iPhone compiler. Developers have used this program to import their designed apps into a format which the Apple App Store can, in turn, process. This means that developers who have been developing using this tool will have to find another way, just because Apple doesn’t enjoy that platform.

The company is looking to send a statement which is “You work our way, but if not, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

This was especially evident with the iPad launch, as developers were scrambling to grab a piece of the early-adopter pie. Because everyone doesn’t want to be late to the party, they’re all the more quick to adopt whatever Apple tells them to. The Wall Street Journal doesn’t have HTML5-compliant video and adspace? Well, it better damn well get some if it wants to be part of the tablet revolution.

Apple has little to lose if publishing body doesn’t want to play by their rules; they’d have about five thousand other publications willing to make the changes so they can enjoy the “Featured App” space on iTunes and the money involved with being available at launch. The advantages of a company complying with these demands are huge – they get to be part of the new wave, and in some cases, set precedents on how they price their apps.

However, the setbacks Apple brings to developers who have been doing everything “right” by their standards (up until now) rubs me the wrong way.

My main concern is Apple’s ability to just impose these new standards. It would seem more beneficial to the web in order to have a standard (such as HTML5 or Flash) that maximizes accessibility, instead of a splintering between the two mediums. It’s as if Apple’s snubbing of Flash turned on big red signs in newsrooms and development studios around the world, flashing “DROP EVERYTHING AND CHANGE YOUR VIDEOS TO HTML5 IF YOU WANT TO KEEP YOUR TRAFFIC UP.”

What I don’t want to see in the future is Apple eventually deciding that HTML5 is not as good as something they could do in-house. Suddenly at Apple’s behest, developers will have to make another switch to iPlugin 2.5x, and devices that aren’t compatible (and aren’t selling as well anymore) are left crippled. The developers have no incentive to include apps for older hardware (because of labor costs or the elimination of features), and early-adopters get shafted.

It’s worth to mention that Admob, the largest SDK for mobile ads, is both owned by being acquired by Google and is available to develop for Flash. At the moment, it has three SDKs: Flash, Android and iPhone. Now that it’s directly competing with Apple’s iAd, it will be interesting to see if Admob will change to Apple’s new standards or perhaps cater more to Android developers.

Ultimately this situation seems to be similar to the argument that people have been making between the Android Marketplace and Apple App Store have been making for a good long while now: what freedom of development are they willing to sacrifice in order to reach both greater audience and greater profits? Are developers going to allow themselves to be influenced by one company’s actions? How will people react to Adobe’s response?

Some part of me enjoys just being caught in the middle of it.

UPDATE: At the time of this posting, Google has acquired Admob, and is going through proceedings with the FTC to legalize the sale. The Federal Trade Comission is concerned about the lack of competition for the merged companies, but with iAd emerging, this seems less likely to be an issue.

More details to follow, but I wanted to let everyone know the app was out so they could check it out.

From Google:

Do you find it hard to find a contact or locate an application from a list of hundreds of items on an Android phone? Or do you find it stressful to search for an item by typing in its title while on the go?

Gesture Search from Google Labs lets you search your Android-powered device by drawing alphabet gestures on the touch screen. It allows you to quickly find a contact, a bookmark, an application, or a music track from hundreds or thousands of items, all in one place. It is fast and fun to use.

Gesture Search currently supports English and requires Android 2.0 or above.

The vast majority of Android owners don’t even know what OTA stands for (over the air), but if you read this blog you know what is in store. Android 2.1 will bring the millions of current Android phone owners full multitouch, Adobe Flash 10.1 support, full Buzz support, multi-accounts (and oh so much more).

There was a lot of finger pointing confusion over which devices would receive Android 2.1, but most of the carriers and handset makers came clean and announced their support. It looks like all Android phones in the United States will be getting Android 2.1, except maybe the G1 which hangs in the balance (doesn’t look good).

We reported back at CTIA (before the Droid or Android 2.0 was announced) that other phones would not receive an update to Android 2.0 till Q2 2010. Some people called us crazy at first, but that is the timeline most carriers have given when announcing their support.

The first signs of an actual update came when Sprint revealed they were testing the Android 2.1 update and were making great progress. Sprint stuck with their 1H 2010 schedule, but hinted at an early release by saying they were making great progress and might deliver well within that time frame.

Now new reports are piling on the rumor that an Android 2.1 upgrade might be available earlier than we expected it.

BGR claims the T-Mobile CLIQ will get Android 2.1 in March, Engadget reported the HTC Hero will get Android 2.1 with the new Sense UI in mid-march, and the Verizon Droid could see the update within the next week.

We want to thank all the carriers for keeping us up to date and we will be including the best estimates for upgrade dates in our pending phones database.

The only question left is, “What happens to the T-Mobile G1?” Does it still deserve an upgrade or is it time to put the phone to rest?

Google promised to regularly update the data to reflect deployment of new devices and new numbers were just posted.

Data collected during two weeks ending on 1/4/2010. Click to enlarge.

I made a quick chart to compare how the distribution of devices has changed since last month. I combined the numbers for Android 2.0 and Android 2.0.1 since they both refer to the Motorola Droid.

Note: my chart says December data was collected on 12/17, but it was actually 12/9.

Comparing platform version movement.

As we can see, devices with Android 1.5 and Android 2.x have grown, while Android 1.6 has declined. It is a little puzzling to see Android 1.6 shrink, since none of those devices have been updated to Android 2.x. The decline was either caused by increased sales of Android 1.5 and 2.0 phones or T-Mobile customers switching to Verizon to pick up the Droid.

The latest numbers do not include the Nexus One since it was launched after the reporting period ended. We should see what percentage of devices it makes up in next month’s report.

Some interesting stats from the latest Platform Version breakdown:

• 78.9% of devices are running an outdated version of Android (1.5, 1.6), but most are expected to be updated by Q2 2010.
• 31% of devices do not have access to new Google applications like Maps Navigation, new Android Market, Goggles, etc. (All require Android 1.6 or greater).
• 21.1% of devices have support for multitouch built into the operating system (Android 2.x).
• 92.7% of devices are better than all Windows Mobile phones.

If you have your own interesting conclusions about the numbers, please share your thoughts in the comments.

“The Droid Eris currently using Android 1.5, can and will be upgraded to newer a Android operating system software in first quarter 2010. The enhancement will allow customers to continue to enjoy the powerful HTC Sense experience while also gaining the additional benefits of Google Maps Navigation.”

Verizon did not specify whether the update would be Android 2.0 or 2.1, but based on the recent leak of the HTC Sense UI (already running 2.1) we think it will be the latter. The significant system update is expected sometime during the first quarter of 2010.

For anyone who missed it, last time we asked HTC about the Android 2.0 release date for the Droid Eris, we got the following response.

“I understand that it is important you receive all the information about a device before purchasing it. Currently, our developers have to work with the carriers to determine when and if a ROM upgrade will be available for any of their branded models. Unfortunately, I do not have any information on if the DROID ERIS by HTC will receive the Éclair update, as it is dependant upon Verizon requesting it. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you.”

I guess we can speculate that Verizon went ahead and requested the update after listening to feedback from customers. It is nice to see a carrier finally comment on this issue and we hope Sprint and T-Mobile will do the same. Both carriers said they would update me on their plans when things change, but I have yet to hear anything new from them.

It should also be noted that if the HTC Droid Eris and Hero phones are receiving Android 2.x, it should be possible for other first generation devices from HTC to also receive the update. Most of the phones share similar hardware and the device drivers should be able to be back ported. I still have my doubts the T-Mobile G1 will officially receive the 2.x update because of its fatally limited internal storage, but I’m sure someone will be able to make it work.

Google Earth for Android

Google Earth has been available on the iPhone for over a year. The application was recently updated to version 2.0, but it is still not available for Android. Believe it or not, Google Earth was originally slated to be available on the Motorola Droid. Apparently it was not ready in time because the application was left off the phone. Keep an eye on the Android Market, because we expect to see Google Earth in the next couple of months.

Chrome Sync for bookmarks

The Motorola Droid was also supposed to support bookmark syncing with the Chrome browser. This feature is currently available in the latest Chrome 4.0 beta, but it was not ready in time for the Droid launch. Expect this feature in a future version of the Android browser once it comes out of beta for the desktop version.

Know of any other features that might be coming to Android 2.1? Hit up our tip line.

Let me just cut to the chase. I believe several first generation phones will not receive an Android 2.0 update. I would love to be proven wrong on this one, but all the evidence I have gathered does not look good.

I also think it is not that big a deal that some phones might not get officially updated. The users who really want access to Android 2.0 features will most likely get them through hacking their phones. Other people will purchase a second generation Android phone when they are available in 2010.

The following is a list of reasons I’m not holding my breath for Android 2.0:

• Lack of hardware drivers from Qualcomm and others for the Android 2.0 kernel
• Limited internal storage space (system partition) of first gen phones
• Lack of comments from carriers and handset makers
• Google back porting their Maps Navigation for Android 1.6
• Handset makers releasing Android 1.x devices in 2010

All of the above arguements are facts. They could change at any moment, but I would not expect any new developments till next year. Don’t you think the carriers would be proudly promoting the fact their existing Android phones would soon be updated so customers don’t jump ship to get the Verizon Droid?

So what phones might get Android 2.0? Only two companies have stated 2.0 would come to existing handsets, but their messages came from Twitter and YouTube.

• HTC Hero could get Eclair
• Samsung Behold II should support Android 2.0

We would like to see some press releases from these companies, but this is all we have. I think we should also note that these messages came directly from the handset makers and not the carriers. We believe at the end of the day, it is the carrier who chooses to roll out an update.

This past week I hit up all the carriers and handset makers to see if they had updated their official position on Android 2.0

HTC

The following is a response from HTC when they were asked if the Verizon Droid Eris would receive Android 2.0. Note how they do not confirm 2.0 and they point the finger at the carrier.

“I understand that it is important you receive all the information about a device before purchasing it. Currently, our developers have to work with the carriers to determine when and if a ROM upgrade will be available for any of their branded models. Unfortunately, I do not have any information on if the DROID ERIS by HTC will receive the Éclair update, as it is dependant upon Verizon requesting it. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you.”

Motorola

Here is a response we got from Motorola when asking if the T-Mobile Cliq would get 2.0. Note how they say the phone can receive updates (obviously), but do not confirm 2.0.

“In regards to CLIQ with MOTOBLUR, it can be upgraded over-the-air and will evolve to support how people’s needs change. However, we haven’t announced any updates at this time.

The Droid that was released with Verizon is 2.0. But at this moment we cannot confirm when an upgrade will be available for the Cliq. However the phone is ready to receive software upgrades to both the Google Android OS, and the Moto Blur interface, therefore upgrades are being planned, but we don’t have a release schedule, or confirmation up to which Android version it’s going to upgrade.”

Sprint

Sprint just launched two Android phones and we are unsure of their update strategy. They have stated no OTA updates for major OS upgrades, but that could change in the future. The Sprint Hero just receive a minor update that was under the 10 MB limit for their OTA system.

“Thanks for your inquiry. We are currently working through the options with the manufacturing partners.”

T-Mobile

This is the response we got from T-Mobile when asking about 2.0. They said they are working with Google to deliver Android 2.0, but did not mention any specific handsets when doing so. Also note how they point the finger at Motorola.

“T-Mobile is coordinating with Google to deliver Android 2.0. We will let you know when we have more details to share.

The CLIQ ships with Android 1.5 software. We have no announcements at this time regarding new Android software updates. For more information about future updates to CLIQ and MOTOBLUR, it would be best to contact Motorola PR.”

Verizon

We sent the above response from HTC to Verizon to see if they would comment. This is the response I received from Verizon Wireless.

“The business discussions we have with our handset manufacturers regarding future software enhancements are considered proprietary.  As background, there are a myriad of decisions that have to be made whenever we announce a new phone or a software enhancement to an existing device.  Once all decisions are final, we distribute the information throughout the organization inclusive of any associated employee training and we announce it through various media outlets.  At present, we don’t have additional information on the Droid Eris that we can share at this time.  The Droid Eris is a great handset and at $99.99 is an exciting alternative to the more expensive Droid by Motorola.  Both provide customers with the open platform of Android on the nation’s most reliable network.”

Conclusion

As you can see, no company wants to officially go on record when it comes to releasing Android 2.0 for first generation devices. Google dropped the Eclair source code a few weeks ago, but it cannot be ported to existing devices until the device drivers get updated. Clearly, there will have to be a lot of work between the chipset makers, handset makers, carriers, and Google for this issue to get sorted out.

It would be nice to get an official answer soon, even if that turns out to be no.

Think we are wrong or jumping to conclusions? Sound off in the comments as to why no one will give us a definite answer.

So what exactly does Android fragmentation look like?

Android visitors to androidandme.com

The above data was generated by Google Analytics and it shows the number of visitors to our site using Android devices. This data was collected between November 6, 2009 (Droid launch) and November 21, 2009.

Nearly 50 percent of Android users are running version 1.6, 26 percent are on the new 2.0, and the remaining 24 percent have 1.5.

Android 1.6 leads the way because the HTC Dream (G1) and HTC Magic (myTouch 3G) phones have been out the longest and sold the most units. T-Mobile has updated both of these devices to Android 1.6 and HTC has made the 1.6 images available on their developer’s site.

I’m a little surprised to see Android 2.0 is the second highest used version. There is currently only one phone (Droid) with this build, but we have heard reports of over 250,000 units sold already. The Droid is being heavily marketed towards the hardcore geek and this site also leans towards the hardcore user so that might be the reason for the elevated numbers.

Android 1.5  has the highest number of devices available right now, but it is coming in 3rd in usage. There really is no excuse for the carriers and handset makers to be shipping phones with the outdated Android 1.5. I know some of these phones have custom UIs (Sense UI, Motoblur, TouchWiz) but they should be easily updated to Android 1.6.

The following is a break down of Android phones and their current versions (United States only).

Android 1.5 devices

• Archos MIDs
• Sprint HTC Hero
• Sprint Samsung Moment
• T-Mobile Motorola Cliq
• T-Mobile Samsung Behold II
• Verizon HTC Droid Eris

Android 1.6 devices

• T-Mobile HTC G1
• T-Mobile HTC myTouch 3G

Android 2.0 devices

• Verizon Motorola Droid

Update (11/23): Added Admob information from their latest report which confirms our stats are pretty accurate.

Most recent Android handset distribution.

Handset breakdown for last seven months.

Admob market trends:

• HTC has taken an early lead, thanks to availability of three different devices.
• Motorola Droid launched on November 6 already represented 24 percent of all Android requests in AdMob’s network worldwide even though the device is available only in the US.
• Worldwide requests from Android devices increased 5.8 times since April 2009 in the AdMob network.
• In the US, Android has 20 percent share of smartphone traffic versus 7 percent in April 2009.
• The Motorola CLIQ generated 6% of Android traffic worldwide as on November 18th 2009.

Android visitors to the Adobe Flash Player site are now greeted with the following image (Thanks TmoNews).

"First half of 2010". LOL.

This confirms our earlier beliefs that Android 2.0 will in fact be required for Adobe’s Flash Player. The Android 2.0 source code is now available to everyone, but handset makers still need to update their device drivers to work with the latest kernel. Rumor has it some companies are lagging on updating older devices to Android 2.0, but it appears they still have plenty of time.

Flash 10.1 is not expected till the “first half of 2010″, which could be late June for all we know. It was way back in 2008 when we first saw Flash demoed on a G1 so there is no telling when the much delayed browser plugin will actually make an appearance.

The mobile version of Flash is reported to support multi-touch, accelerometers, multiple screen orientations, and hardware graphics acceleration. This could be a boon for Android gamers so we are eagerly anticipating the beta.