1. Adobe Flash 10.1 and Air 2 beta signups

I start with this point because it is the most obvious and it comes directly from Adobe. Early this week Adobe began taking applications for public betas of Flash 10.1 and Air 2 for Android. In a post on The Flash Blog it was revealed that private betas had already begun with developers.

2. Flash 10.1 coming in the first half of 2010

We originally thought Flash 10.1 had been delayed till the second half of 2010, but we were wrong. Flash evangelist Serge Jespers was quick to point out that Flash 10.1 was still on track for a 1H 2010 release. That leaves about two months before it should be available.

3. Andy Rubin blogs about Flash for Android on the Adobe blogs

Google’s VP of Engineering, Andy Rubin, just authored a guest post on the Adobe Featured Blogs. He specifically mentions Google I/O and says we will learn more at the event.

“We also look forward to all the innovative content and applications created for Android and Flash. Join us at Google I/O in May to learn more about our work together with Adobe to open up the world of Flash on mobile devices.”Andy Rubin>Google

4. New version of Android with embedded Flash support

I already authored an entire post on this, but I think Android 2.2 will also debut at Google I/O. There is evidence that 2.2 is already in testing and signs that new Android features will be revealed at Google I/O.

Android engineer Chris Nesladek and a few others will lead a session titled Android UI design patterns. Part of their discussion will focus on “new patterns which will get an I/O-only preview”. There is also the session A JIT Compiler for Android’s Dalvik VM which is another new Android feature.

5. Flash devs are already making Android apps

What good is the beta of Flash 10.1 without some apps to try it out? Adobe has already provided many devs with early access to Flash and Air, while Google has supplied them with free phones.

If you visit The Flash Blog, Adobe has already listed a dozen Android apps which use Flash and Air. Each app has a corresponding blog post and video, so it looks like the devs have had access for awhile. I expect most of these guys will be at I/O to show off their work.

The confusion came from an interview with Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen who said we should expect Flash for Android in the second half of the year. He was referring to new devices that would have Flash 10.1 preinstalled, but the plugin will actually be available sooner for those with supported devices.

Even though Flash 10.1 is right around the corner, Adobe is unsure on the exact distribution method. It could be available in the Android Market, on their website, or via an OTA update of the OS.

Android fans who want to participate in the public beta, should sign up now to be notified of its release. Keep in mind that Flash 10.1 requires an ARM Cortex-A8 based processor or greater so all first gen Android phones are ruled out.

If I was a guessing man, I would say to expect Flash 10.1 (and possibly Android 2.2) right around May 19th.

To borrow an old Canadian adage, owning a phone other than Apple’s iPhone is like sharing a bed with an elephant. No matter what it does, or how much you want to ignore it, you are affected by its every movement.

Yesterday proved no different, as Apple revealed details about its iPhone OS 4.0. With the announcement comes many improvements, many of which (folders, dedicated e-mail app, etc) are already present on Android. However, Apple made one move that’s going to be causing a few waves: iAd. As a mobile advertising platform for iPhone apps, it gives developers a chance to split the revenues of advertising 60-40 with Apple. Thankfully, the developers get the 60.

Stupid naming scheme aside, iAd is part of Apple’s recent strategy to set precedents. Apple, as many people in tech will point out, dislikes working with Adobe product. This has resulted in a lack of Flash support for both iPhone and iPad. This lack of support became a large issue when the company decided to release their iPad tablet, as Adobe claims that Flash is installed on 98% of Internet enabled desktops, and 75% of all video online is viewed through their technology. How would they be able to tout the iPad as the “ultimate browsing experience” if it could not see half the videos and a large amount of ads that are on the Internet?

Apple then did what it does best, and set a precedent.

Enter HTML5. Slowly gaining steam within web circles lately, this update to a developing language makes videos and ads a plugin-less experience on the Internet. Gone would be the days of users having to install Flash and (shudder) Shockwave in order to view content. As long as a browser were up to date, users would be able to see what site designers wanted.

Android is not averse to HTML5, as any device with 2.0 or better has support for the format. Hell, Ian Hickson, the HTML5 Editor (yes, that’s a formal title) is a Google employee. This should mean that we, as Android users, should have nothing to worry about… right?

Not necessarily.

Along with the iPhone 4.0 came its software development kit (SDK), which included the following lines:

3.3.1 — Applications may only use Documented APIs in the manner prescribed by Apple and must not use or call any private APIs. Applications must be originally written in Objective-C, C, C++, or JavaScript as executed by the iPhone OS WebKit engine, and only code written in C, C++, and Objective-C may compile and directly link against the Documented APIs (e.g., Applications that link to Documented APIs through an intermediary translation or compatibility layer or tool are prohibited).

This segment of the agreement effectively locks out the use of Adobe’s Flash-to-iPhone compiler. Developers have used this program to import their designed apps into a format which the Apple App Store can, in turn, process. This means that developers who have been developing using this tool will have to find another way, just because Apple doesn’t enjoy that platform.

The company is looking to send a statement which is “You work our way, but if not, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

This was especially evident with the iPad launch, as developers were scrambling to grab a piece of the early-adopter pie. Because everyone doesn’t want to be late to the party, they’re all the more quick to adopt whatever Apple tells them to. The Wall Street Journal doesn’t have HTML5-compliant video and adspace? Well, it better damn well get some if it wants to be part of the tablet revolution.

Apple has little to lose if publishing body doesn’t want to play by their rules; they’d have about five thousand other publications willing to make the changes so they can enjoy the “Featured App” space on iTunes and the money involved with being available at launch. The advantages of a company complying with these demands are huge – they get to be part of the new wave, and in some cases, set precedents on how they price their apps.

However, the setbacks Apple brings to developers who have been doing everything “right” by their standards (up until now) rubs me the wrong way.

My main concern is Apple’s ability to just impose these new standards. It would seem more beneficial to the web in order to have a standard (such as HTML5 or Flash) that maximizes accessibility, instead of a splintering between the two mediums. It’s as if Apple’s snubbing of Flash turned on big red signs in newsrooms and development studios around the world, flashing “DROP EVERYTHING AND CHANGE YOUR VIDEOS TO HTML5 IF YOU WANT TO KEEP YOUR TRAFFIC UP.”

What I don’t want to see in the future is Apple eventually deciding that HTML5 is not as good as something they could do in-house. Suddenly at Apple’s behest, developers will have to make another switch to iPlugin 2.5x, and devices that aren’t compatible (and aren’t selling as well anymore) are left crippled. The developers have no incentive to include apps for older hardware (because of labor costs or the elimination of features), and early-adopters get shafted.

It’s worth to mention that Admob, the largest SDK for mobile ads, is both owned by being acquired by Google and is available to develop for Flash. At the moment, it has three SDKs: Flash, Android and iPhone. Now that it’s directly competing with Apple’s iAd, it will be interesting to see if Admob will change to Apple’s new standards or perhaps cater more to Android developers.

Ultimately this situation seems to be similar to the argument that people have been making between the Android Marketplace and Apple App Store have been making for a good long while now: what freedom of development are they willing to sacrifice in order to reach both greater audience and greater profits? Are developers going to allow themselves to be influenced by one company’s actions? How will people react to Adobe’s response?

Some part of me enjoys just being caught in the middle of it.

UPDATE: At the time of this posting, Google has acquired Admob, and is going through proceedings with the FTC to legalize the sale. The Federal Trade Comission is concerned about the lack of competition for the merged companies, but with iAd emerging, this seems less likely to be an issue.

What is Adobe’s solution to the performance issues? Drop support for all first generation Android devices.

In a new post on the official Adobe forums, it was revealed that Flash 10.1 for Android will require at least an ARMv7 (Cortex) based processor.

“You can expect the final release for Android to be available mid-year.  All Android devices that meet our minimum s/w and h/w requirements will be supported.  Unfortunately, I cannot say a lot more publicly about our port to the Android platform at this time.

No, the HTC Hero will not be supported b/c it does not have the correct Anroid OS version and it’s chipset is not powerful enough.  We require a device with an ARM v7 (Cortex) processor.  Examples include the Qualcomm Snapdragon chipsets and TI OMAP3 series.”Antonio FloresAdobe

I’ll skip the lecture on ARM architecture and cut to the chase. The only U.S. Android phones on the market that meet this requirement are the Motorola Droid and HTC Nexus One.

Almost everything else is ARMv6 (ARM11) and will not support Flash 10.1.

U.S. Android phones that will not support Flash 10.1:

• Sprint Hero
• Sprint Moment
• T-Mobile G1
• T-Mobile myTouch 3G
• T-Mobile CLIQ
• T-Mobile Behold II
• Verizon Droid Eris
• Verizon Devour

Please note that some of these devices like the Eris and Devour include Flash Lite that was added by the handset maker.

The video even caught the eye of Adobe and they felt a response was justified. In a post on the Flash Mobile Blog, they noted the leaked HTC Desire ROM actually included an alpha version of Flash Lite and not Flash Player 10.1.

The HTC Desire will eventually support Flash 10.1 when it is made available sometime in the first half of 2010 via an over the air update.

Adobe also took the chance to address the claim that Flash kills battery life on the Nexus One. To prove their point, they uploaded a 17 minute video to Vimeo and reported their tests show that “video can be played for well over 3Hours over WIFI from YouTube in H.264 (Baseline 1.2)”.

Battery Performance with Flash Player 10.1 on the Nexus One from Mark Doherty on Vimeo.

Android visitors to the Adobe Flash Player site are now greeted with the following image (Thanks TmoNews).

"First half of 2010". LOL.

This confirms our earlier beliefs that Android 2.0 will in fact be required for Adobe’s Flash Player. The Android 2.0 source code is now available to everyone, but handset makers still need to update their device drivers to work with the latest kernel. Rumor has it some companies are lagging on updating older devices to Android 2.0, but it appears they still have plenty of time.

Flash 10.1 is not expected till the “first half of 2010″, which could be late June for all we know. It was way back in 2008 when we first saw Flash demoed on a G1 so there is no telling when the much delayed browser plugin will actually make an appearance.

The mobile version of Flash is reported to support multi-touch, accelerometers, multiple screen orientations, and hardware graphics acceleration. This could be a boon for Android gamers so we are eagerly anticipating the beta.

The following information should be considered a rumor and I’ll let you judge how accurate we have been in the past.  I think our readers are pretty smart so I’ll present some public info and you can answer the following questions on your own.

Please remember that anything is possible with Android 2.0.  Google, Motorola, and Verizon are working very hard to make this major update compete directly with the iPhone OS 3.0 and the Palm Pre WebOS.  It appears they are pulling out some major new features to ensure Android 2.0 is a huge success.

5. Is Flash 10 coming to Android 2.0?

I’m sure most of you have seen the video where Adobe CTO Kevin Lynch demos Flash player running on a T-Mobile G1.

That video was filmed in November 2008 at the Adobe MAX conference. It was there that Andy Rubin announced Google and Adobe were collaborating to bring flash to Android.  Since that time, we have seen Flash Lite on the HTC Hero, but nothing official on Flash 10 for Android.

Adobe MAX 2009 takes place October 4-7 and Flash 10 for mobile is expected to be the key announcement. It has been confirmed that a beta player will become available for smartphones during this conference.

Look for a Flash 10 beta for Android on October 4, 2009.

Several people with access to a Motorola Sholes have told me that it will come with Flash. Previously, I was not sure what version would be included but after looking at all the evidence it appears to be Flash 10. Look for Adobe to make the announcement on October 4, 2009 and the Motorola Sholes to possibly be the first phone to ship with Flash 10.

6. Is Google Earth coming to Android 2.0?

Many people asked “Where is Google Earth?” when Android first launched. It was a popular iPhone application and many people expected it would ship with Android.

Unlike my first five predictions, I do not have any new evidence to bring to the table. This tip comes directly from an inside who has been very reliable in the past. Google Earth should launch around the time of Android 2.0 and be available as a separate download in the Market. Google Earth is not really that important to me, but all the people who cried out for it should be happy.

Android 2.0 Recap

1. Google Maps 4.0

Fact:  Google Maps 4.0 is being developed for Android.

Rumor:  We have heard it would include spoken turn-by-turn directions, but have been able to confirm this.  New info I have received reported there was a special “Verizon edition” of Google Maps running on the Motorola Sholes.  It could be that Verizon will be offering enhanced map features and thus the rumor for turn-by-turn.

2. Multi-touch

Fact:  Multi-touch code has been spotted in future Android code.

Rumor:  We know multi-touch support is coming, but don’t know the exact build it will appear.  The Motorola Sholes is expected to ship with multi-touch, but we do not know if this was a Motorola add on or comes from native support by Android 2.0.

3. Chrome Sync

Fact:  Chrome is adding support to sync bookmarks to multiple devices.

Rumor:  I think this one is a no brainer.  I expect to see it included with Android 2.0 by the time it rolls out.  Google already syncs a lot of data for Android phones and browser bookmarks will be a welcome addition.

4. New Android Market

Fact:  A new Android Market is in the works.

Rumor:  I got new screenshots of the Market update this week and I’m excited an update is finally coming.  I was told the new Market was pictured running on a Donut build.  This make perfect sense to me because I believe Donut (Android 1.6) and Eclair (Android 2.0) will launch at the same time.  Expect all Android phones with access to the Market to get an update in late October.

A new Android Market is right around the corner.

5. Flash 10

Fact:  Flash 10 for mobile is coming October 4, 2009.

Rumor:  This is another no brainer.  I expect Flash 10 will be available on all second generation Android phones.  As for the G1, nothing is really certain when it comes to updates but I hope it will get Flash 10 as well.

6. Google Earth

Fact: None.

Rumor:  This one is pure rumor.  I have nothing to back this up other than an inside source.  I thought some people would be happy to hear this information so I decided to share it.

Give us your feedback

If all these features come to Android 2.0, how do you think it will stack up against iPhone OS 3.0?  Are there any major features missing from Android 2.0 that you would like to see added?  Do you hate the inside info we post and want to flame us for ‘making stuff up’?

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